This week is the final one in the 2023 macroeconomic calendar rich in statistical data. Capital markets will soon begin summarising the results of the year.
USD: a significant volume of statistics
The US is gearing up to publish the second estimate of Q3 2023 GDP, with expectations of economic growth. In addition, estimates of personal income and spending by Americans in November will be released, along with a core PCE inflationary report – the one the Federal Reserve is closely monitoring. The USD position may strengthen.
EUR: in a strong position
There will not be many European statistics that could affect currency performance. A preliminary December report on inflation in the eurozone is worth paying attention to. Prices may have remained unchanged compared to the November results. The EUR rate is still relatively stable.
GBP: inflation and GDP
The UK is set to release the November inflation data, potentially decreasing to 4.4% y/y from the previous value of 4.6%. In addition, one more estimate of Q3 GDP will be published. The economy may have shown a zero quarterly increase, with annual growth at 0.6%. The GBP is currently aiming for local growth.
JPY: awaiting changes
The Bank of Japan will hold a meeting and likely keep the monetary policy structure unchanged, with the interest rate remaining negative at −0.1% per annum. The market will closely monitor the regulator’s comments, searching for signals of its readiness to gradually change monetary policy. The JPY exchange rate remains stable so far.
China: interest rate revision
There will be hardly any significant statistics coming from China this week. The People’s Bank of China will likely revise the loan prime rate, which currently stands at 3.45%. Its stability will be a good signal for assets linked to risk.
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