Investors are interested in safe assets and sympathetic to the US dollar, but how long this will last is an open question.
USD: inflation in priority
The key publication this week will be the US Consumer Price Index report for January. It is assumed that year-on-year inflation has fallen from 6.5% to 6.2%, while month-on-month inflation could rise by 0.5% after a 0.1% decline in December. This would be a strong support for the USD.
GBP: remains in range
The focus for investors will be the release of employment market information for December and January. The unemployment rate could remain around 3.7%, while average wages for October-December could fall to 6.2%. Jobless claims in January could fall from 19,700 to 17,900. GBP exchange rate will remain in the 1.20-1.22 range assuming there are no surprises from the statistics.
AUD: Pressure is rising
Australia will report consumer confidence and business sentiment indicators. These indicators could decrease, which would put more pressure on the AUD’s position.
JPY: backed by GDP
The Japanese yen is weakening gently, also on the back of pressure from the US dollar. The JPY could be supported by the release of Japan’s Q4 GDP report. The economy could expand by 2% y/y and 0.5% q/q, which would be an optimistic result.
CAD: no support
Canada will release data on manufacturing and wholesale sales as well as the producer price index. If the statistics do not provide enough support for the CAD, the decline could intensify.
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